2024 has been frequently cited as a year of grave concern. Major geopolitical challenges abound. At the same time, the US, despite its global economic and military dominance, is dealing with major internal political tribulations.

In an event charged with implications, the US goes to the polls on November 5th. Against the backdrop of Trump's legal issues as our background it was fascinating to moderate the panel on the topic “US elections: is a Trump victory inevitable?” at the recent AIM Summit in London. We also explored what Trump version 2.0 would look like for foreign and trade policy.

Great insights were imparted by two eminent and respected experts: Charles Myers, Chairman and Founder of Signum Global Advisors, an independent advisory firm operating at the intersection of policy and global markets, and Greg Swenson, Senior Partner and Founder of Brigg Macadam, a corporate finance firm focused on international financing. Greg is also the Chair of Republican Overseas UK.

We discussed the contest for control of the Senate and the House, which will be just as important as the race for the White House itself. We looked at the possible composition of a future Trump cabinet and the implications for a whole range of policies including immigration, tax cuts, trade policy (especially regarding China), the likely elimination green energy subsidies and Trumps’s “drill, baby, drill” fossil fuel policies. Issues relating to NATO and Ukraine were also explored at some length.

The whole post-World-war II settlement and the Washington Consensus may be about to be seriously, perhaps irrevocably, disrupted. We are living through interesting times!

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